各位周6好，截至北京时间12月24日，乌克兰战争进入304天。
泽连斯基从美国带回来了爱国者导弹系统以及450亿美元的援助，但是这对于结束乌克兰战争而言， 还远远不够。目前在顿巴斯地区，战火依然在持续。
今日，在赫尔松地区，俄罗斯再次发动袭击，多人受伤。
另外，随着战事马上要进入2023年，普京近日对俄罗斯国防部称，要求确保俄军获得为打击乌克兰而需要的武器、装备。
国际方面，伊朗有望继续和俄罗斯展开合作，伊朗将为俄罗斯提供高级的武器。ISW assesses that the Kremlin has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)—a renewed offensive from Belarus possibly aimed at Kyiv—since at least October 2022. The Kremlin may be conducting an information operation or may actually be preparing for this MDCOA, which ISW continues to assess to be unlikely but possible.
ISW评估称，俄罗斯一直在为新的最危险的行动方针（MDCOA）创造条件——至少自2022年10月以来，可能再次从白俄罗斯对乌克兰发动攻势。俄罗斯可能正在进行一次信息行动，或者实际上可能正在为这场最危险的行动方针（MDCOA）做准备，ISW继续评估这希望不大，但有可能。Prominent Russian pro-war milbloggers are amplifying the possibility of the MDCOA over the winter-spring period.俄罗斯著名的亲战军事博客正在放大冬、春期间最危险的行动方针（MDCOA）的可能性。The Russian military has more clearly been setting conditions for an offensive in northwestern Luhansk Oblast.俄罗斯军方更明确地为在卢甘斯克州西北部发动进攻创造了条件。Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly preparing to present a peace plan in February 2023, which could be timed to exploit a failed Russian winter offensive.据报道，乌克兰总统泽连斯基（Volodymyr Zelensky）正准备在2023年2月提出一项和平计划，该计划可能是利用俄罗斯冬季攻势失败的时机。Russian President Vladimir Putin’s renewed public appearances likely indicate that he has become more concerned about his popularity and image in Russia.俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）再次公开露面可能表明，他对自己在俄罗斯的声望和形象越来越关注。Russian forces conducted at least two reconnaissance-in-force operations in northern and northeastern Ukraine on December 22-23.12月22日至23日，俄罗斯部队在乌克兰北部和东北部进行了至少两次空中侦察行动。Ukrainian forces likely made tactical gains east and south of Bakhmut City over the past 72 hours.在过去72小时里，乌克兰军队可能在巴赫穆特市以东和以南取得了战术优势。Russian forces are continuing to establish defensive positions in left-bank Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts and are conducting defensive operations in southern Ukraine.俄罗斯军队继续在左岸赫尔松州和扎波罗热州建立防御阵地，并在乌克兰南部开展防御行动。The Kremlin is intensifying its censorship efforts to silence concerns over an expansion of the Russian Armed Forces and a second mobilization wave.俄罗斯正在加大审查力度，以平息对俄罗斯武装力量扩张和第二次动员浪潮的担忧。Ukrainian partisans continued to target Russian officials in occupied territories.